Scenario Planning as Instrument of European Policy-Making - The Case of West African Migration to Europe

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Course Information
Political Science
Terms offered: 
Fall, Spring
Language of instruction: 
Contact Hours: 


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In this course you will participate in a scenario planning exercise, in order to give you an overview of and practical insight into the methodology of scenario planning as it is used in politics and business. Core to this course are three workshops, spread out through the semester. In each workshop you will prepare and then elaborate on a scenario, completing the three Shell scenario planning steps: orientation, building, and affirmation. Scenario Planning is a group exercise; hence group work assignments will be an important part of this course.

The topic of your scenario will be based on a real ongoing scenario project, led by your professor Winfried Veit: you will deal with the root causes of West African migration to Europe, which will become a major issue for European foreign and security policy in the coming decades, and which require long-term strategic thinking. Demographic pressure, climate change, bad governance, Islamist terrorism, and unfair trade relations will increase the pressure in the coming decades. The scenarios will provide various outcomes and options for solving the problem. During course-related trips, you will have the opportunity to deepen your understanding of these issues in meetings with migration experts in Brussels (FEPS) and with experts on Africa in Paris. Depending on the field study you attend, you may meet experts on related topics in London or Rome.

This course discusses the most important aspects of scenario planning, and its impact on strategic decision-making for decision-makers and stakeholders in politics, economics, business and society